Code Date Venue Early Bird Fee Fee
PE1268 20 - 23 Aug 2019 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia SGD 4,944 SGD 5,144

About this Training Course 

This 4-day training course offers participants the opportunity to explore these challenges, including hands-on application of industry-standard tools and techniques to assess realistic scenarios and associated data. The essential commercial drivers are held in perspective at all times.

The course commences with a brief overview of the critical Business Environment factors within which all Energy industries operate, with pointers to major sources of market uncertainty impacting potentially massive investment decisions. Focus then shifts from the macro-economic, towards the realm of individual project commitments typical of the upstream petroleum sector, outlining key areas of uncertainty within the principal cashflow components. This leads on to various aspects of cashflow analysis and a brief review of the range of key economic and financial indicators at both project and corporate level, including the broad impact of various forms of taxation.

Risk and uncertainty definitions are clarified and linked to definitions of common financial indicators. Common methods of quantifying uncertainties and risks are then described, from simple parametric methods to probabilistic simulations leading to the use of Decision Tree Analysis to analyse problems. These tools are then applied to technical issues over the field life cycle, from exploration risking to the quantification of value of information during field appraisal and on to production forecasting using both deterministic and probabilistic methodology. Human factors involved in identifying risk and quantifying uncertainties are explored, from the preferences implicit in utility theory to the behavioural heuristics which commonly lead to bias in technical judgement.

Risk diversification principles and associated Portfolio Management theory are described on the final day, with some pointers as to how this might find practical application within E&P decision-making. The course concludes with a multi-faceted case study in which ‘management teams’ will have the opportunity to assess a range of asset-related risks, and propose mainly qualitative resource allocation solutions including several political issues.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Define risk & uncertainty in technical and business opportunities
  • Summarise petroleum economics techniques and indicators
  • Appreciate fundamentals of financial reporting
  • Utilise a range of tools to combine uncertainties and quantify risk
  • Evaluate technical risks in exploration and appraisal
  • Evaluate technical risks in development planning and production
  • Assess commercial uncertainties
  • Understand how utility theory drives our risk-reward judgements
  • Compare probabilistic vs. multiple deterministic methods
  • Understand reserves addition techniques
  • Understand the impact of portfolio management in risk and uncertainty

This course will benefit Oil & Gas professionals in the various disciplines including risk management, exploration, audit and finance.

Learning is reinforced by working on case materials to explore uncertainties and risks in the context of production forecasting, cash-flow management, incremental projects and asset portfolio manipulation.

Monte Carlo modelling and Decision Tree analysis software are employed during the course to develop practical skills in risk and portfolio management.