About this Training Course 

Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic method that some organizations use to get to grips with the broader contextual uncertainties that the organization faces when making strategic or major investment decisions. It is a way to better understand the complexity of the future business environment. As such, the scenario narratives that result from such exercises may be referred to as ‘memories of the future’. They provide a meaningful framework for discussing the key trends in the contextual environment and their implications for business decisions.

The energy industry faces much more uncertainty than 10 to 20 years ago. The energy transition is a sure thing, but how fast will it change? What is the future outlook for oil? Will power generation become as decentralized as some are suggesting? Will gas or LNG indeed act as a transition fuel, or will this be short lived as the pace of development in renewables continues to surprise? Will carbon capture and storage (CCS) ever take off as an accepted emission mitigation strategy?

We do not have the answers to these questions, neither will others. What can be done however is to explore such questions by means of scenarios. In this masterclass we will show how companies or organizations can develop and use such scenarios. The masterclass will be a two day interactive engagement with lectures and group work around some ‘live’ scenario concepts being used in the energy industry. Scenario development methodologies will be discussed and practiced as well as the use of scenario thinking for decision making.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • A comprehensive and clear understanding of what scenario planning is
  • How to develop scenarios coherently with current information available
  • What can be accomplished with the scenarios developed and how it can be executed for planning

Business leaders, project managers, business development professionals, economists, financial analysts, risk managers, strategy consultants and other project staff. University level degree preferred. Familiarity with the energy business recommended.

Your expert course leader completed a career of 35 years with Shell. His career took him across the world, within the Shell group of companies, to locations in Indonesia, Thailand, the United States and the Netherlands. During his last five years in Shell’s Corporate Strategy and Planning, well known for the Shell Scenarios, he was responsible for project evaluation assumptions that were applied across Shell, and as well for the methodologies for the analysis supporting investment decision making. He successfully developed new approaches for project and portfolio risk analysis, implemented company wide, and the application of the Shell scenarios for strategic decision-making. He currently serves as Treasurer of the (American) Society of Decision Professionals. In 2015, he left Shell and founded NavIncerta, a company aiming to assist organisations with improving their capabilities in the analysis of uncertainty and risk at the project level as well as within the broader strategic context.